Markets aren’t a good barometer for the economy

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Mixed jobs report
The U.S. economy added 142,000 nonfarm jobs in August. That’s fewer than the 161,000 expected by Dow Jones, but better than July’s revised 86,000. Unemployment in August ticked down to 4.2% from 4.3% as the labor force grew 120,000 for the month.

Slumping stocks
U.S. markets fell Friday, with the Nasdaq Composite sliding 2.55% to end the week more than 10% off its record close. All major indexes closed in the red for the week. The pan-European Stoxx 600 index lost 1.07%. The benchmark ended the week 2.5% lower, its biggest weekly loss in a month.

Sinking oil
It wasn’t just the stock market that had a bad week. The price of U.S. crude oil slumped 8% last week, clocking its worst week since June 2023. At its lowest, West Texas Intermediate‘s October contract touched $67.16 per barrel. Next year’s not going to be any better: Bank of America slashed its price forecast for oil to $71 from $75.

Stiglitz and Yellen
Ahead of the jobs report, Nobel Prize-winning economist Joseph Stiglitz said the U.S. Federal Reserve raised rates “too far, too fast,” and a 50-basis-point cut would help both inflation and jobs. Meanwhile, U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen reassured the public on Saturday that she sees – and hopes to continue seeing – “a good, solid economy.”

[PRO] The bull limps on
The S&P 500 entered a bull market nearly two years ago, writes CNBC Pro’s Michael Santoli, spurred by the belief a soft landing’s the destination for the U.S. economy. But with the job market softening uncomfortably quickly and stock market leaders losing momentum, it remains a question how much the upcoming rate cuts will affect markets.

What do markets know that we don’t?

On Friday, the S&P 500 declined 1.73%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 1.01% and the Nasdaq Composite sank 2.55%, capping off a losing week for all major U.S. indexes.

Big Tech stocks were among the worst performers. The names behind much of this year’s rally — Nvidia, Alphabet, Amazon — fell around 4% on Friday alone.

If the movement of markets is a barometer for the health of the economy, then we’re in for some bad times ahead.

That’s, however, a very big “if.” Markets are less an Excel formula than Word’s often random autocomplete suggestions.

What we do know from hard numbers is that the U.S. economy, while not doing too great, isn’t nearly as bad as stocks imply.   

Job additions in August were substantially higher than in July, while the unemployment rate dipped for the month. Yes, the headline number’s lower than expected. But it breaks a downward-moving trend from May, suggesting the U.S. job market isn’t moving in the wrong direction.

Sure, the jobs report looks to the past while markets forecast the future. But the futures market itself is betting on a 65% chance for a 25-point cut in September, and only 35% for 50 points, according to the CME FedWatch tool.

That implies things in the economy aren’t so bad that the Fed will be forced to make a drastic cut. Adding to that, there hasn’t been any concrete news or earnings reports that have affected the fundamentals of Big Tech.

Further, Goldman Sachs and the Atlanta Federal Reserve recently revised their projection of third-quarter GDP upwards.

The stock market’s downbeat week, then, seems “a sentiment-driven move that’s largely driven by growth concerns,” said Emily Roland, co-chief investment strategist at John Hancock Investment Management.

Sometimes sentiment tells us things our gut knows but our brain doesn’t. Other times, we need to tell ourselves sense and sensibility are often at odds with sentiment.

– CNBC’s Jeff Cox, Sam Meredith, Samantha Subin, Pia Singh contributed to this story.